Upcoming Events

Logic Colloquium

February 21, 2025, 4:10 PM

1015 Evans Hall

Simon Huttegger
University of California, Irvine

Coins in Damascus

Death in Damascus is a classic decision problem that goes back to the work by Gibbard and Harper in the 1970s and has been one of the focus points in the ongoing debate between causal and evidential decision theory. It features a situation in which one of two options must be chosen with each option leading to foreseeable regret. A recent variant of Death in Damascus, introduced by Arif Ahmed, introduces a third act that intuitively protects the decision maker from those bad consequences. Causal decision theory, Ahmed argues, nonetheless advises against choosing that third act. In this talk, I will present a plausible game-theoretic reconstruction of Ahmed’s decision problem that is motivated by the fact that Ahmed fails to model the relevant types of uncertainty which make his third preferred option attractive in the first place. In our reconstruction, causal decision theory aligns with Ahmed’s intuitions about how to choose in his extended version of Death in Damascus. I also consider the advantages of game-theoretic versions of decision problems relevant for causal and evidential decision theory more broadly. (Joint work with Kevin Zollman)

Logic Colloquium

March 14, 2025, 4:10 PM

60 Evans Hall

Eddy Keming Chen
University of California, San Diego

Exchangeability and Algorithmic Randomness: A New Proof of the Principal Principle

We explore the role of algorithmic randomness and exchangeability in defining probabilistic laws and their implications for chance-credence principles like the Principal Principle. Building on our previous work on probabilistic constraint laws (arXiv:2303.01411), we develop a new approach to proving the Principal Principle. This proof avoids circularity by grounding it in algorithmic randomness, frequency constraints, and exchangeable priors. Our approach establishes a direct link between long-run frequencies and short-term credences, clarifying the epistemic foundations of chance, typicality, and probabilistic laws. (Joint work with Jeffrey A. Barrett.)

Logic Colloquium

April 04, 2025, 4:10 PM

60 Evans Hall

Ronnie Chen
University of Michigan

Logic Colloquium

April 11, 2025, 4:10 PM

60 Evans Hall

Francesca Zaffora Blando
CMU

Logic Colloquium

May 02, 2025, 4:10 PM

60 Evans Hall

Omer Ben-Neria
UCLA